European new order in making

What does the White House demand?

• no Nato membership for Ukraine
• no foreign troops to Ukraine
• no EU membership for Ukraine
• no security guarantees by USA
• to get 50% share of the Ukrainian mineral resources

What does Kreml demand?

• no Nato membership for Ukraine
• no foreign troops to Ukraine
• reduced military power in Ukraine
• Crimea, Donbas, Donetsk and Zaporizzian regions to be permanently annexed to Russia
• Russia agrees to discuss sharing the mineral resources of the new Russian territories above

The list of demands are very similar!

Q: What can Ukraine demand? Like DJT said: ”You do not have any cards on the table to play with.”

Q: What would be the role of the Coalition of Willing? (Pro-Ukraine group of EU member states, 2nd March 2025)

All boils down to Ukraine´s minerals and other resources in Europe. USA and Russia are already in a silent agreement on that! 

• In the fall Ukraine discussed with both Biden and Trump and offered part of its mineral reserves against Nato membership, i.e. security guarantees and against of more effective weapons to improve air defence.
  READ: this was an Ukrainian initative
• Newly elect Trump made a counter offer; 50% of the minerals, $500bn payback scheme for the weapon supplies delivered by USA (in fact the required sum is 3-4 times higher as the value of actual deliveries).
• Mid.Feb., before the Munich Meeting USA made on offer; 50% of mineral reserves without anything else. No guarantees etc.; time to sign = one hour.
• Two weeks ago the altered US offer included a clause, that all weapon deliveries shall carry a double price tag!
• One week ago a revised frame agreement was disclosed: 50% of minerals and full control of the $500bn payback fund to USA. Nothing concrete about security guarantees.
  => the deal fell through
  => US weapon supplies halted
  => intelligence service from US to Ukraine halted
  … will the Musk satellite system be blocked from Ukranian armed forces, too?

Independent analysts said in the Economist that the US offers were not written by US state department officials, but business lawyers. The wording and phrases used are not common to US govt. language used.

While you read this, it might all be of history due to upredictable US foreign policy.
Q: Is there a policy or just a poker table?

No AI-powered tools have been used in writing this column.
Any errors in thinking or writing are solely the author's own.